Capital Properties FX
Capital Properties FX

Forecasting the EUR USD Forex Rate

Yesterday, February 15th, our subscribers enjoyed a very welcomed and well-deserved payday: we booked 1200 (one thousand two hundred) pips profit in the North American session, mainly forecasting the right EUR USD Forex rate for the past month or so.

It was not by chance! We prepared for this for one and a half months now. Since 2017 started, we waited and waited patiently, adding to our exposure in the right place, at the right time, to come with a killer line that allowed for such a profit.

We were heavily long the USD and especially looking at the EUR USD Forex rate. And it all started with January 19, when we shorted half a position on the pair. Two days later, the above analysis was posted for our members with another two full short positions. Things were getting serious!

Read also: How To Reach Outstanding Forex Performance

Payday – A 1200 Pips Profit Journey

The EUR USD Forex rate implied a move lower should follow as a beautiful rising wedge was forming, the 1-3 trendline was pierced…what can you ask more? While market dipped, it was not enough, as buyers emerged. We kept calm, as seen these patterns thousand of times before.

Another bounce, another entry! This time the entry was even better.

So we plunged on the short side, while respecting our money management system described on the website. Having a sound money management system is key when trading Forex and when forecasting Forex rates.

The line between overtrading and the right positioning is so thin, that many fail in executing a trading plan. Forex winners are the result of both accurate planning and execution while having plenty of patience waiting for the trades to come to target.

Full Exposure

We ended up with four and a half full short EURUSD positions while having longs on USDCHF and USDJPY, as well as one GBPUSD short. Payday came eventually – yesterday!

Correlations are a tricky concept when trading the currency markets. Analyzing different Forex charts may result in taking positions on the same market direction, while on different currency pairs.

In our case, we ended up trading the U.S. dollar. Our full exposure was:
– 4.5 full EURUSD short trades;
– one half position GBPUSD short trade;
– 2 full positions USDJPY long trades;
– and one other half position trade we can’t disclose here as the trade is still open and it is not fair for our current members.

Spot the elephant in the room? The U.S. dollar.

While we traded different currency pairs, the exposure was in the same direction: a higher U.S. dollar. This is overtrading and if we insisted on adding new positions on correlated trades, even a small swing against our trades would have been fatal.

We know better, so we avoided that. Patiently waiting for almost a month, adding and building this exposure with patience and discipline, adding a bit here and there.

Wild Ride

It was a wild ride. The move lower was slow and painful, at least in the case of the EUR USD Forex rate.

But it was worthing every penny. Every fifty pips lower move was retraced minimum fifty percent before a new leg lower came.

To make things perfect, we exited ALL positions when EURUSD reached 1.0569. Perfect entry, perfect execution!

Experience is an important part of a trader’s success. When dealing with Elliott waves as we do here, time is an important element. From our point of view, time is even more important than price.

The right entry and exit in a trade should not be given by price, as that is merely the place where the market is. Time, on the other hand, is key.

Future price action MUST confirm a pattern in a specific amount of time. If that is not happening, the trade should be dumped.

What Next?

The base of these trades and the main source of our profits was the rising wedge on the EURUSD pair. However, things didn’t work the way they were supposed to work, as we were supposed to be much lower at this point in time.

What next? The complete retracement is not done!

Does this mean that we should short the pair now? Not really!

Remember? Time is as important as price, and if time is not confirming the price, something is fishy.

Become a member and find out why we booked the profits and what our next trades are. We trade in full and half positions, have a sound money management system, and use Elliott Waves to forecast markets. As a result, our subscribers are up 500% plus since the moment the service was launched.

Patience is a virtue in trading, and our subscribers value the way we trade. Be part of our success and start trading Forex like a pro. It’s not about the quantity, but the quality of the trades.

Come and join us. Our fx trading signals are worth every penny!

Capital Properties FX
February 16, 2017

Read also: 4 Steps Trading Plan – USDJPY